The River that Flows Both Ways
The 2024 New York State primaries
Update 29 June 2024: The version of this article sent out by email neglected to properly attribute the district maps used within. They are from the Center for Urban Research at the CUNY Graduate Center’s Redistricting and You site.
Note: I had hoped to write some more extended piece on these races, but due to some medical things and a move consuming a fair bit of my time these past weeks, I’m going to condense them down into a single article. Don’t take that as less content though, normally I would stagger the release date of several smaller articles throughout the past week dealing with individual races, but this will instead be one large article. Additionally there will be no early access this week for paid members due to the late release and no accompanying materials. This said, expect a treasure trove of data from this election in the coming weeks.
We are coming to the end of what may be the most exciting set of primary contests in the state since 2018, the year which brought us candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Julia Salazar, and the downfall of the State Senate IDC. Unlike that year however, this does not merely cut one way. In addition to the usual progressive insurgent campaigns and scrums for open seats, we have also witnessed a well-funded moderate backlash against progressive incumbents throughout the state, bolstered in fair part by pro-Israel backlash against their statements regarding the current war in Gaza.
At the level of the state legislature, this effort has been spearheaded by a group new to this cycle, the “AIPAC of New York” Solidarity PAC. They have as of the latest financial filings raised over $300,000 spent on a variety of different campaigns, all opposed to Democratic Socialists of America and Working Families Party endorsed candidates incumbent and otherwise. Advertising on their ActBlue page a recommended one-time donation of $36,000, they’re not exactly going for grassroots donors here.
While the stated reason for these group’s positions as well as those of some different groups opposing Congressman Bowman we’ll discuss later in this article, they aren’t even spending on advertisements opposing the DSA/WFP position on the war in Gaza! Instead, most of their advertising focuses on a vague misalignment with the Democratic mainstream. It is an interesting tactic for these groups without precedent and something I mention upfront as to where I can reference them by name for the (many, many, many) primaries they are presently spending in.
Additionally, I will be referencing my proprietary “LeftScore” from this article. If you have not read it, essentially it is my methodology to rank how left wing a district in New York State is comparative to other districts. 1.0000 is the most progressive district in the state, and 0.0000 is the least. To further your understanding of this number, I have included next to each district the order of each district in parenthesis. For instance, “(14/150)” would mean a district is the 14th most progressive out of 150 districts in the state by my methodology. This will be standard shorthand for my future articles. With one notable exception, I am covering races from the most progressive LeftScores to least.
Do note there are so many races that while I usually try to cover as much as I can, I am mostly going to cover races with viable progressives. This should not be taken as a complete overview of all races today, but I hope in exchange you find my coverage of the following races quite thorough.
What you came for: Bowman/Latimer
NY-16 (Congressional)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.2533 (12/26)
Alright, we may as well start off with the highlight of the night: the challenge to Congressman Jamaal Bowman by Westchester County Executive George Latimer. If you’d like to see a long quantitative analysis of that race, I’d suggest this piece in Split Ticket. To be frank, it is what I had attempted to do about a month ago but executed far better. I would wager most people taking the time to read a long newsletter on New York politics have had even the finer points of this race beaten down their throats, so I’d like to take it from a bit of a different angle.
The most notable thing about this race has of course been the dramatic super PAC spending on behalf of George Latimer, the most of any Democratic primary in history. This includes $14.5M from the “United Democracy Project," a front group of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) which like the Solidarity PAC is mostly running ads opposing Bowman’s vague extremism without mention of the Gaza war. That is not to say there are not ads chiding Bowman’s position on the war running in the district however, a PAC called Fairshake has spent about $2M to that effect. Fairshake in turn is a PAC advocating for cryptocurrency deregulation that I suppose sees the Israel-Gaza War as a less fraught issue to run ads on than their own scandal plagued industry. Also in the mix with an indeterminant amount of money spent given they are nominally not supporting a specific candidate and thus don’t have to make particularly transparent financial reports on their activities is Westchester Unites, which aims to turn out Jewish voters which would benefit Latimer. Given they’ve had a physical office for months, I’d wager it is not an insignificant amount of money.
There has of course been spending on behalf of Bowman too, but nowhere near as much, mostly from the Working Families Party and what is left of the Justice Democrats. It is not 2018 anymore, the money faucet that was grassroots progressive fundraising back then has dried up to a great extent and this has lead to the organizations spearheading that push cutting staff and costs. Bowman has sought to make up for this by attracting volunteers, including what even I as a member can admit was a hail mary pass to seek the NYC-DSA endorsement relatively last minute.
Bowman stopped paying his dues to DSA after an internal controversy regarding him participating in a J Street sponsored trip to Israel and voting to provide Israel with military aid. Technically he has remained a member as members not in good standing are not immediately removed from the rolls, but consensus within DSA seems to view his positions as closer now to those expected by at least the New York City and Lower Hudson Valley chapers of the organization, though he has not sought the endorsement of the national organization and is not expected to.
This gambit appears to have paid off. On Sunday, NYC-DSA made 150,000 calls in a single day into the district, one of regular phonebanks ongoing. They have also sponsored large canvasses in the Co-Op City neighborhood of the district which has given a dual opportunity to canvass for DSA-endorsed Assembly challenger Jonathan Soto, a race we will discuss later.
There was some question early this year about how redistricting would affect the race (if only someone wrote about this…) to which Bowman was very marginally advantaged, gaining back the neighborhood of Co-Op City while losing parts of Wakefield. While this does not change the number of people in the district living in the Bronx, there is a notable turnout differential between Co-Op City and Wakefield in that Co-Op City has generally higher voter turnout in primary. My math shows that netting Bowman a few thousand votes, not much compared to Westchester but in a close race enough for an edge he did not have in 2022.
Gun to my head? There has been a lot of shifting wisdom over the month in political prognostication circles, but I’ve been fairly consistent. This race will come down near entirely to turnout differentials: which parts of Westchester vote more disproportionately? In a seldom changed district in a higher profile vote my thought has always been Latimer is advantaged but only slimly, Westchester is far more diverse than many seem to give it credit for and both candidates have very high floors. I say this race leans towards Latimer, and I’d guess on a final margin in the high single digits. A good bellwether for the night would be if Bowman is getting in the mid 80s or higher in the Bronx, he stands a chance. I’d be skeptical of early Westchester results as we won’t know where exactly in the district it is from until after it is all counted. Given the stratification of this district, that means it will likely be dramatically one way or another for a while which may not reflect the final result.
Regardless of the outcome here there will be plenty of discourse on what exactly caused it, so I’d like to get ahead of it by proposing my own if Bowman does lose. As I mentioned in my redistricting article, New York lost seats in the 2020 Census which had the effect of shifting most districts in New York State north. In Bowman’s case this meant his district at the “choke point” of the state lost very favorable portions of the northern Bronx and gained more hostile portions of suburban Westchester. In which case I would like to propose a prospective Bowman loss is a result of the state undercounting the census by a mere 89 people. Could Latimer win a district like that? Only if he wins in a blowout which I do not anticipate, but even if he could it is doubtful the same financial resources would be pouring in to support him. Three years after its announcement, this census undercount may claim another victim.
The Old College Try: Gallagher/Simpkins
NY-50 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.7771 (4/150)
This… is a weird one. Best as I can understand it the stated impotus for all this was the city proposing a redesign of McGuinness Blvd that would turn a lane of car traffic into a bike lane which got businessowners and select residents in uproar. One of these residents Anathea Simpkins launched her campaign against DSA incumbent Emily Gallagher, and now you’ve got all kinds of money flowing in. Pro-charter schools, real estate developers, and of course our good friends at the Solidarity PAC. Simpkins has outspent Gallagher $191k to $86k.
All this would be quite damning were this not Williamsburg and Greenpoint against an incumbent who beat long time Assemblyman Joe Lentol and won with nearly 80% of the vote against a challenger in 2022. I will be curious to see if Hasidic South Williamsburg votes for Simpkins this election given in 2022 they quite hilariously voted for Gallagher but even that hardly moves the needle here. Safe Gallagher. The batter has barely stepped off home plate and the ball is already at first base. What are we doing here? My only guess is that there was an attempt here to spread the city’s progressive community thin defending multiple seats but they did not take the bait.
The Banality of Primaries: Simon/Budow
NY-52 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.7366 (6/150)
I heard about this one shocking late given a lack of reporting and extremely low profile but my formula and the appearance it is not totally perennial makes me feel I should mention it.
Jo Anne Simon is a fairly uncontroversial incumbent Assemblywoman. She has run several times for higher office, narrowly losing the borough presidency in 2021 and not even coming close in the clown car that was the NY-10th Congressional primary in 2022. Budow to the best of my grasp is running a primarily “YIMBY” campaign, arguing the incumbent has not been favorable to further development. On other issues, he seems to be running marginally to the right of what is already a milquetoast incumbent for this seat. He has the endorsement of the NYC New Liberals (imagine if DSA’s structure was copied and used to far less success towards electing young centrists who have wanted to be president since childhood and still think it will happen) and as far as I can tell no one else. I only mention his race as he’s outspent Simon $144k to $66k. Just to save my reputation in case this has truly flown under the radar, likely Simon.
Scratch one Flattop: Ardila/Valdez/Carmona
NY-37 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.7054 (7/150)
Incumbent Assemblyman Juan Ardila is screwed. I don’t say that to mean he is an underdog, no he has a subzero chance of being re-elected after sexual assault allegations dating back to his time in college emerged. For utterly incomprehensible reasons he has stayed in as the Democratic Socialists of America coalesed around Claire Valdez and the Meeks Queens County Democratic Party coalesed around Johanna Carmona, rendering her something of a quasi-incumbent. The circumstances of this race have lead to the rare case where a DSA primary challenger has not just the backing of the usual suspect organizations and progressive officials but some more established ones too, such as State Senator Mike Gianaris. Carmona in turn has consolidated a more moderate base of support, including our friends at the Solidarity PAC.
Carmona’s campaign has spent $150k to Valdez’s $145k. That said while her backers have held great historic sway, we saw how little influence the county party has in this part of western Queens with the Gonzalez/Crowley race in 2022, and this is the DSA’s most probable pickup of the year. Likely Valdez.
Battle of Bed-Stuy: Zinerman/Huntley
NY-56 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.6292 (9/150)
Another play is being made by NYC-DSA to expand their turf further into Brooklyn, this time in a majority-Black seat in eastern Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights currently held by Stefani Zinerman. This is in turn a bitter battle between various progressive organizations backing challenger Eon Huntley, and the notorious Kings County Democratic Party. Additionally, word on the street is House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is particularly interested in keeping this seat in his congressional district out of DSA hands. Our friends the Solidarity PAC are as usual also heavily invested in this race. It is also worth noting a few of the usual politicans to endorse in this kind of race have not perhaps in an effort to save favor with Jeffries, though I won’t name names.
This race has been particularly nasty in a year with many notably nasty races, with a lot of allusion that the gentrification of Bed-Stuy. Huntley has also been perhaps the most vocal advocate of a ceasefire among all DSA candidates, even sending mailers highlighting his support for such a measure. Huntley has actually outspent the incumbent here, $146k to $127k. This is a difficult race to even begin to anticipate the outcome in but a source told Jewish Insider internal polls have Zinerman up a few points and “not going in the right direction.” Based off of that and what I know about Huntley’s GOTV effort, I am saying this race tilts marginally in Huntley’s favor.
The Line of Succession: Shrestha/Madden
NY-103 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.5099 (13/150)
DSA incumbent Sarahana Shrestha’s win in 2022 was the reason I began this newsletter. I was a canvasser on her campaign, mostly to try to involve my high school friends with local DSA activities while I was back from school. It was not really until the last week that I thought she would loosen a hair on 30 year incumbent Kevin Cahill’s head, scion of a family so entrenched in Kingston politics that my great-grandparents knew them. Campaigning on her support for the Build Public Renewables Act, she won slimly, expanding the map of DSA viability to this rural and exurban stretch of Ulster and Dutchess Counties. The bill would go on to pass with her support.
What follows is admittedly a bit of speculation admittedly but it’s something I think is going a bit unsaid in this race. In 1992, the incumbent of this district Maurice Hinchey (father of the present state senator Michelle Hinchey and the first Democrat to flip this once safe Republican assembly seat in the 1970s) ran for Congress. He endorsed to succeed him for this Assembly seat a staffer of his, one Kevin Cahill. 32 years later, the townie powers that be of Kingston are all behind a former Cahill staffer, Gabi Madden (Cahill himself is barred by his state job from making endorsements in political races, but the subtext is obvious). When you see yourself as the rightful heir of a 49 year chain of patronage and control, you may become a bit dare I say entitled? Particularly if your path to power is unceremoniously lost in an instant.
Some people would move on with their lives, Madden has chosen to run a divisive and negative campaign I will not even pretend to hide my contempt for. The daughter of local restaurant owners has sent out mailers touting her “local values” and that she was raised here, the subtext of her opponent being a Nepali immigrant to this country hardly being lost on anyone. These mailers in turn have ironically mostly been paid for New York City real estate interests and of course who can forget our friends at Solidarity PAC, people whose only connection to our region is perhaps a summer home in the Catskills. She has outspent Shrestha $187k to $91k. That same Jewish Insider source by the way stated they were avoiding this district as it was a “super socialist area,” a farcical thing to have read about it about ten years ago. Electing Republicans to off the board for even moderate Democrats in a matter of two or three cycles? You may be able to see why I was compelled to start this newsletter.
Shrestha in turn overwhelmingly won the endorsement of the Ulster and Dutchess Democratic Parties, a remarkable feat given all the inside club history I allude to and will no doubt in the future write of. She has been among the most proactive elected officials I have ever seen at holding town halls and constituent meeting in her district, and even working with our more moderate state senator the aforementioned Michelle Hinchey to draft legislation to replace our deeply unpopular utility company Central Hudson with a publicly owned authority. Madden campaign banks on the proposition that this was all some kind of fluke, that some radical city folk have taken what is hers and that surely, certainly it will be corrected. As someone whose family has been up here for many generations now, I’d encourage her to look out the windows for once. Likely Shrestha.
Albany Scrum: Anane/Farrell/Joyce/Flynn/Reidy/Romero
NY-109 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.3934 (19/150)
With the incumbent seeking a spot in the State Senate, a wide open field has emerged for this Albany-based seat with various legislators from the city of Albany and the surrounding suburbs making a play. Topping expenditures are County Legislator Dustin Reidy at $157k, Albany Council Majority Leader Ginnie Farrell at $101k, Albany Councilor Owusu Anane at $96k, Albany Councilor Gabriella Romero at $94k, and County Legislator Andrew Joyce at $87k.
It is always difficult to gauge races with no public polling, but it is worth noting Gabriella Romero has the Working Families Party endorsement and has consolidated the progressive lane to a fair degree. This said, I’d give a slight edge to moderate Dustin Reidy who has most union endorsements.
Strange Bedfellows: Lasher/Northrup/Rosenberg/Quinones/Kellner
NY-69 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.3745 (20/150)
While there are five candidates here, the two frontrunners have very much emerged in former Hochul staffer Michal Lasher and public defender Eli Northrup. Leading the pack in expenditures is Lasher at a whopping $390k, followed by Northup at $193k. What sticks out to me here is a very odd set of endorsements, Lasher has been endorsed by Congressman Jerry Nadler, City Comptroller Brad Lander, State Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal, and City Councilor Gale Brewer, politicians from moderate to pretty progressive. Also supporting his campaign is Solidarity PAC. Northup meanwhile has picked up the endorsement of the Working Families Party and critically that of retiring incumbent Assemblyman Daniel O’Donnell. My prognosis based on the money and endorsement edge is that this race leans towards Lasher.
Blood in the Water: Wright/Ordonez/Harmongoff/Schley
NY-70 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.3378
After a fairly embarassing loss to Yusuf Salaam for City Council, many smelled blood in the water against Inez Dickens this year for her Harlem-based Assembly district. Enough so that she has actually chosen against seeking re-election. At the front of the pack is Salaam’s former campaign manager Jordan Wright, son of Keith Wright the prominent Manhattan Democratic Party leader. His most compelling rival is likely Maria Ordonez, who has run for City Council in the area. While a DSA member, she is not endorsed by the organization. Without much institutional backing and outspending Ordonez $188k to $89k, I rate this as likely Wright.
Springwood: Barrett/Cousin
NY-106 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.1820 (42/150)
This is an interesting race, one between a Working Families Party endorsed challenger Claire Cousin against Didi Barrett, a 12-year quite moderate incumbent who to say the least is not used to this (I lived in this district briefly in 2022, the only sign of her campaign was an envelope with a long-winded letter “vote for me” letter inside she mailed to every registered Democrat). Cousin is herself an elected official, a Supervisor in Hudson County. The campaign has focused particularly on housing and environmental issues, with Barrett having a large war chest due to you guessed it, Solidarity PAC! She has spent a whopping $301k to Cousin’s $191k.
This race’s largest municipality is the Town of Poughkeepsie, an urban to suburban stretch encircling the City of Poughkeepsie and including Vassar and Marist Colleges. With this much of a financial edge and aggressive advertising, I would say this race tilts marginally towards Barrett.
Side Effects: Benedetto/Soto
NY-82 (State Assembly)
Hudson Line LeftScore: 0.0921 (61/150)
This race is a rematch between 20 year incumbent Michael Benedetto and progressive insurgent Jonathan Soto. While Soto lost by a large margin in 2022, he is back this time with DSA support. What makes this race particularly interesting is that since the Bowman endorsement, a lot of DSA canvassers have been drawn to canvass for both Bowman and Soto simultaneously in vote-rich Co-Op City. This is additionally ironic as Bowman himself has not endorsed Soto. With the help of Solidarity PAC and others, Benedetto has spent $143k to Soto’s $100k. Frankly I had not considered this district remotely on the map for DSA until the Bowman endorsement and a source in Jewish Insider stating private polling of the race is close. Regardless, I think the race tilts towards Benedetto.
Conclusion
There’s a bit less boiler plate to this piece as I wanted to get as much information out there as possible. I’ll be livetweeting results as they come in on my Twitter if you are interested. I’ll write on the results more formally once we have some data to analyze. Until then!